El Nio is forecast to lessen rainfall and raise the heat in Jamaica.
The head of the Met Office cautions that the current surge in rainfall is unlikely to last.
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Evan Thompson, the head of Jamaica’s Meteorological Service (Met Office), warns that the present rise in rainfall is not projected to be sustained across the island over the next several months, given the current development of the El Nio weather phenomena.
Temperatures are also forecast to climb, resulting in warmer days and maybe increased heat stress across the country.
This week’s trough throughout the island resulted in higher rainfall from unstable meteorological conditions, resulting in flooding in several regions.
Thompson stated at a post-Cabinet news conference on Wednesday that the projected peak in rainfall for early last month had been pushed out to the end of May and into June.
“There is not likely to be a consistent rainfall increase over the nation over the next several months,” he said, referring to people who have questioned why water restrictions in some parts of the island have not been relaxed.
“It’s a meteorological truth that you’re receiving more rain,” Thompson said. “It’s pretty probable that we would have seen a respite from meteorological dry conditions, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods in terms of rainfall.”
He stated that if the local aquifers and reservoirs are not full, the country may still be left with insufficient water to last the remainder of the year.
“Normally, July is a low rainfall month of the year, so do not expect too much rainfall as we move into July and August unless we have tropical waves that are fruitful with moisture,” said the Met Office head.
Thompson stated that the evolved El Nio phenomena lessen the possibilities of hurricane development due to changes in the atmosphere in the Caribbean area.
El Nio is the word used to describe warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator.
“Although the temperatures of the ocean in the Caribbean are boosting the risks of storms, El Nio is actually decreasing,” Thompson noted.
“As a result of the interplay between those systems, we predict a more or less normal (hurricane) season on average,” he said.
Every year, the hurricane season lasts from June 1 through November 30.
According to Thompson, El Nio is strengthening and is projected to last throughout the hurricane season, “which implies that it is good news in terms of the number of systems that might emerge.”
He did warn, though, that meteorologists are still unsure where storms or hurricanes would form, how long they might continue, or how powerful they might become.
However, the El Nio weather phenomena are predicted to have an impact on temperatures over Jamaica, which Thompson predicts will be “above” average.
“We’ve already begun to experience really warm weather, and there have been several comments about how hot it is.”
“Unfortunately, the Meteorological Service can do little to lessen the temperature, but we can advise you that temperatures are anticipated to remain above average during the hurricane season,” Thompson added.
He went on to say that “even if it’s just one degree over average, it’s big for us.”
El Nio, according to Thompson, will also lead to decreased rainfall locally.
“There is more stress with hot temperatures and less rainfall, and we must be ready to manage it,” he encouraged locals.
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