Jamaica‘s population growth remains unstable although it’s expected to increase very slowly over the next decade.

Jamaica Population Growth

Jamaica’s population growth has been fairly unstable over the last 50 years with a lot of ups and downs, including a very steep drop from 1980 to 1990. Over the past 15 years, Jamaica’s population growth has slowed dramatically and was down to 0.26% as of 2019.

Jamaica is currently seeing a decline in the 0-14 age group with an increase in the working age and retired population, the fastest growing segment, which is typical for developing countries. According to the Planning Institute of Jamaica, the country is now on track to stabilizing its growth to stay in line with United Nations recommendations.

Jamaica Population Projections

In the years to come, it is expected that the population growth rate in Jamaica will continue to slow, before beginning to slowly decline around the year 2030. Contributing factors are the fact that it expected that the net migration will remain at least -16,000 over the next 30 years and that the birth rate will continue to be under 2 children born to the average Jamaican woman. Current projections believe that the growth rate will be down to -0.62% by the year 2050 and that the population of Jamaica will be roughly 2,913,160 in 2020, 2,932,629 in 2030, before beginning to decline towards 2,858,381 in 2040 and 2,703,591 by 2050.

Population

Jamaica Area and Population Density

Jamaica is a small island in the Caribbean Sea, but it makes up for its size with a high population density in comparison with much of the rest of the world. The total surface area is just 4,244 square miles (10,991 square kilometers) and this makes Jamaica the 160th largest nation on earth, when it comes to the geographical area.

With 2,907,300 people living there as of 2019, for every square mile of Jamaican territory, however, there is an average of 685 people (265 people per square kilometer), making it the 35th most densely populated country in the world.

Largest Cities in Jamaica

Roughly 55% of the people living in Jamaica reside in or around a major metropolitan area. 39% of Jamaica’s residents live in parish capitals, according to the 2011 census, and the population of the Kingston Metropolitan Area (KMA) and all parish capitals was 1.04 million, which is a 5% increase since 2001. KMA alone has 88% of the parishes of St. Andrew and Kingston.

The largest city in Jamaica is Kingston, the capital city. Kingston has a population of 937,700, according to 2011 estimates. The Kingston Metropolitan Area (KMA) and all parish capitals had a population of 1.041 million according to the census and, outside the KMA, the largest capital towns are Spanish Town in St Catherine (147,000) and Montego Bay (110,000). Officially, the largest cities in Jamaica are:

• Kingston (Kingston Parish): 937,000
• Portmore (Saint Catherine): 182,000
• Spanish Town (Saint Catherine): 147,000
• Montego Bay (Saint James): 110,000

To be precise, the latest official estimate – provided in 2014 by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica – is 2,720,554.

However, other demographers disagree, and believe that the population of Jamaica is actually considerably higher than the government believes. The CIA World Factbook, for example, had estimated that the Jamaica population in 2012 was actually 2,889,187, not the 2.7 million estimated by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica.

Jamaica has a long history of census taking, and currently holds a census every ten years. The last census took place in July 2011, which showed a total of 2,697,983 residents in the country. A 2014 estimate showed 2.72 million, while estimates for 2016 are thought to be around 2.9 million.

Depending on which estimates you use (the Jamaican government’s or the CIA Factbook), Jamaica experienced a population growth of 5 or 15% from 2001 to 2011. Still, there’s no doubt that the country is continuing to grow.

Jamaica Demographics

According to the 2001 census, Jamaica’s population is overwhelmingly of African descent, and the most common ethnic groups among Africans taken to Jamaica for slavery during the 17th century were the Akan (or Coromantee) from present-day Ghana and the Igbo people from present-day Nigeria.

The second-largest racial group is multiracial Jamaicans, many of whom have ancestors from Ireland. Still, most mixed-race people in the country self-report as just “Jamaican.”

Jamaicans of African descent represent 76.3% of the population, followed by 15.1% Afro-European, 3.4% East Indian and Afro-East Indian, 3.2% Caucasian, 1.2% Chinese and 0.8% other.

The CIA World Factbook has also provided data on age breakdowns and life expectancy. As far as age breakdowns were concerned in 2011, it was reported that 30.1% of the country’s people were aged between 0 and 14. In addition, 62.3% were between 15 and 64 years of age while 7.6% of the population of Jamaica were aged 65 and over in 2011.

In 2018, these numbers have changed little, with 27.2% between the age of 0 and 14, 20.8% between 15 and 24 years of age, and 13.85% of the population are aged older than 55. The median age is now at 26 years of age.

Life expectancy figures date from 2013 and at the time it was reported that the average across Jamaica stood at 74.4 years. This could be further divided between men at 71.8 years and women at 77.2 years. The 2018 updated figures reflect a slight drop to 73.7 years of age for total life expectancy by the World Factbook, with a division among the sexes of 72.1 years for males and 75.4 years for females.

Jamaica Religion, Economy and Politics

The religions in Jamaica are quite varied, with the population reporting religious affiliations at Protestant (includes numerous paths) with 64.8%, Roman Catholic 2.2%, Jehovah’s Witness 1.9%, Rastafarian 1.1%, other 6.5%, and no religion at 21.3% of the population.

The economy is Jamaica is highly reliant on the services sector, largely made up of a combination of remittances, tourism and mined bauxite and alumina. The economy has been growing slowly, but consistently, yet further growth is held back by the inflated public sector, and high rates of corruption, crime, and debt. Although it is less prominent now than it has been in the past, agriculture is still an important aspect of the Jamaican economy, with sugar being by far the most common export, followed by coffee, bananas, and cocoa.

Jamaica Population History

Christopher Columbus claimed the island of Jamaica in 1494, and the Spanish began inhabiting the area 15 years later, killing much of the indigenous Arawak community due to European disease exposure. Slaves were brought in from Africa to work on sugar plantations. Jamaica was captured by the British in 1655 and became officially a British territory fifteen years later in the Treaty of Madrid. An earthquake ravaged the area and killed many in 1692.

Jamaican slaves were officially freed in 1838, however, this did not mean instant stability for these people. Freed slaves staged the Morant Bay rebellion in 1865, which was quickly and violently put down by the British, forcing the local legislature to give up all of their powers. Jamaica finally became independent within the British Commonwealth in 1962. In its brief history of independence, Jamaica has seen a consistent increase in violent crime, which it continues to struggle with today.